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California’s more infectious strain of the COVID-19 virus is now the dominant variant within the state and has been proven to thwart protective antibodies utilized in vaccines and therapeutics, consistent with a replacement UC San Francisco study.
In response, the Centers for Disease Control has labeled the California strain a “variant of concern,” joining a designation shared by strains first identified in Great Britain, South Africa, and Brazil.
Within just the past six months, it's exploded in prevalence. By the top of January, when the study was completed, the variant represented quite 50% of genomes sequenced from infected people tested at UCSF’s hospitals and clinics, Alameda County’s community sites, and Santa Clara County’s congregate facility, community, and acute care sites.
With a reproductive rate that doubles quite once a month, its prevalence is now likely higher.
Vaccines will likely remain effective against the variant, consistent with lead investigator Dr. Charles Chiu of UC San Francisco, whose lab is collaborating with the state’s Department of Public Health to hunt cases of the new variant.
But its behavior is worrisome. Scientists found a two-fold decrease in neutralizing antibody activity against the California variant. The South African variant, which is proven to elude vaccines, causes a six-fold reduction. Antibody levels are a marker of protection.
The growing prevalence of this more contagious pathogen, combined with its ability to scale back immune protection, means it must be watched, Chiu said.
“I don’t think it’s getting to cause a ‘vaccine breakthrough, where the vaccine doesn’t work,” he said. “But this study gives us some initial idea of the infectivity and therefore the potential resistance to neutralizing antibodies for a variant that, up so far, has not been studied. this is often key information that we'd like .”
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The discovery comes as hospitalizations and deaths from coronavirus are on a continued downswing in California, reflecting the continued health practices — from distancing and masking to getting vaccinated — that experts warn are vital to regulating the virus because it evolves.
The so-called California variant is about 20 percent more infectious than the first virus, consistent with the study.
Previous studies linked the variant, called B.1.427/B.1.429, to increased risk of severe disease and death, also as longer stays in medical care units and therefore the need for mechanical ventilation.
The variant has been reported in other states but most of the cases are in California, Nevada, and Arizona, consistent with outbreak.info, an internet site that tracks epidemiological data around the world.
Also concerning are the results from new lab studies: There was a 6.7-fold decrease in antibodies within the blood of seven out of eight people that had received treatment with monoclonal antibodies or convalescent plasma.
“What meaning is it’s likely that there’s some element of what we call ‘antibody escape’ — where, if you were infected before, you'll not necessarily be protected against reinfection,” said Chiu.
What the findings mean for a way well the vaccine and coverings will protect real people from the variant is tough to inform.
Antibody levels are just one part of the immune response; the vaccines also trigger T cells, scientists say.
Vaccines may trigger such high levels of antibodies that their efficacy would drop only slightly. Immunity isn't binary, turning on or off; instead, it’s on a spectrum.
But the new findings raise concerns about a few potentially higher risks of re-infection among vaccinated people. the danger of reinfection could be highest for people that produced low levels of antibodies after vaccination.
A drop by antibodies also could have more subtle effects, like immunity waning a touch faster, consistent with the journal Science.
Like all viruses, the COVID-19 pathogen makes tiny changes in its genome because it reproduces. Understanding this evolution — and particularly which mutations can change its behavior — is important for estimating the threat of the latest strains.
The virus’s genetic makeup, stored during a single strand of RNA, determines whether it'd suddenly turn immune to medicine, or whether a vaccine is protective or futile.
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services recently halted shipments of an Eli Lilly treatment, called bamlanivimad, to California, Nevada, and Arizona, citing concerns that it's going to be less effective against the strain.
Officials said that another COVID-19 therapy made by Eli Lilly, a mixture of bamlanivimab and another drug, etesevimab, can still be ordered. Early results show the drug combination may significantly reduce the danger of hospitalization and death. a special antibody treatment made by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals was also not suffering from the HHS action.
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